AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 5 to 6 cents higher, following wheat. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week that ended 4/20 dropping 24,000 barrels per day to 985,000 bpd. That is the lowest weekly production total since the week of October 6 last year. Stocks of ethanol were 357,000 barrels higher than the previous week at 21.701 million barrels. The Midwest was the only region to see stocks shrink. The average trade guess for old crop export sales ahead of tomorrow is 0.8-1.2 MMT, with new crop ranging 200,000-400,000 MT. China’s corn acreage is expected to be down nearly 823,000 acres from last year in effort to help trim stocks. Brazil’s second crop is experiencing some dryness in Parana, the country’s second largest corn producing state.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.03, up 5 3/4 cents

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.12 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed with 4 to 6 cent gains in Wednesday. Soy meal was $4.10/ton higher, with front month soy oil down 23 points. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, analysts are expecting to see old crop soybean sales in the range of 400,000-700,000 MT. New crop is seen as having the same range. Sales of soy meal are projected at 100,000-30,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. The USDA Ag Attach expects the Brazilian soybean crop at 115 MMT for 2018/19, even with the current 17/18 projection.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.27 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.39 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.41 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.34 3/4, up 6 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $376.20, up $4.10,

May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.79, down $0.22

Wheat

Wheat futures saw gains of 6 to 7 cents in most MPLS contracts on Wednesday. CBT and KC led the way, 12 to 15 cents higher. Scattered reports of freeze damage in KS helped. The 5-day QPF shows most of the Southern Plains fairly dry over the next few days. After last week’s Export Sales report showed a net reduction in old crop wheat sales, this week’s report is estimated to have a net reduction of 100,000 MT to sales of 200,000 MT. New crop wheat is expected to see sales of 150,000-350,000 MT in the week that ended April 19. The annual Hard Winter Wheat Quality tour will take place next week, as analysts will look to get a better idea of the crop’s quality.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.86 1/4, up 13 3/4 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.07, up 14 1/2 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.99 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures settle the Wednesday session with gains of 27.5 to 82.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were 75 cents to $1.20 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 12 cents on April 24 at $138.20. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 88 cents at $218.53, with Select boxes $1.04 higher at $203.15. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 355,000 head through Wednesday. That is even with the previous week and up 5,000 head from the same week in 2017. This morning’s FCE online auction saw none of the 3,194 head sold, with feedlots passing on offers of $120.25 and $121.

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $121.925, up $0.825,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $105.575, up $0.525,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $105.275, up $0.350,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.850, up $0.750

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.350, up $1.200

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.425, up $0.950

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were mixed on Wednesday, with front months 40 cents to $1.10 higher and back months lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.12 from the previous day to $59.00 on April 23. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 41 cents at $68.49 this afternoon. The loin was the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was 28 cents higher at $58.35. The USDA estimated FI weekly hog slaughter at 1.395 million head through Wednesday. That is 1,000 head above last week and 65,000 head above the same week in 2017.

May 18 Hogs closed at $68.550, up $1.100,

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $75.350, up $0.525

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $78.425, up $0.425

Cotton

Cotton futures posted sharp 175 to 250 point gains in the nearby contracts on Wednesday. The US dollar index was not much factor on the day, up 484 points. Drier weather is seen over most of TX during the next week. The Cotlook A index was down 60 points from the previous day at 93.20 cents/lb. The Adjusted World Price, effective through Thursday, is currently at 74.16 cents/lb. China sold 14,648 MT of cotton from states reserves on Wednesday, totaling 48.82% of the total offered.

May 18 Cotton closed at 84.760, up 250 points,

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 83.940, up 243 points

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 80.890, up 175 points


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