Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with fractional losses, weighted down by losses in wheat. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. The US cash average price as of Monday afternoon was $3.36 1/2 according to DTN, 1 3/4 cents off the same time last year. That would put the national average basis at -30 1/2 cents, 6 3/4 cents stronger than a year ago. Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his projected Brazil 17/18 corn production number another 2 MMT to 86 MMT. That is 9 MMT below the February USDA estimate.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.82, down 1/2 cent

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, down 3/4 cent



Soybean futures settled with 7 to 10 cent gains in most nearby contracts. Meal futures were up $7.40/ton, with nearby soy oil down 28 points. Forecasts are calling for continued dryness in Argentina this week, with a chance of rain by the weekend. According to DTN, the average US cash price for soybeans on Monday was $9.32 3/4, 46 cents lower than the same day in 2017. That would put the average soybean basis at -69 cents, 6 1/2 cents stronger than last year. Analysts are expecting Thursday’s NOPA report to show that 165.511 mbu of soybeans were crushed during January. That would be 3.04% larger than the same time last year, and the second largest behind December 2017.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.11 3/4, up 10 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.22 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.32, up 10 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.23 3/4, up 7 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $365.20, up $7.40,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $31.57, down $0.28



Wheat futures ended Turnaround Tuesday with most KC and CBT contracts 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. MPLS was 7 to 8 1/4 cents in the red. Japan’s Ag ministry is seeking 84,683 MT of wheat to be sourced from the US and Canada. The tender will close Thursday, with 60,463 MT sought from the US. The ABARE in Australia estimates the country’s winter wheat crop at 21.2 MMT, vs. the USDA’s 21.5 MMT. China sold 279,335 MT of wheat from state reserves on Tuesday, with 2.057 MMT offered at the auction.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.60 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.74 1/2, down 3 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.01 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents



Live cattle futures finished the Tuesday session with most front months steady to 30 cents lower and back months higher. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 40 cents lower in the nearby contracts, as deferred months were higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 6 cents on February 12 at $147.57. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 88 cents at $207.36, with Select boxes down 84 cents at $203.13. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 227,000 head through Tuesday. That was down 3,000 from the previous week but 1,000 head more than the same week last year.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $126.825, down $0.300,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.775, down $0.225,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $116.650, down $0.075,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.275, down $0.400

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.500, down $0.025

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.325, up $0.175



Lean hog futures were mostly lower on Tuesday, with nearby Feb 27.5 cents higher ahead of Wednesday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 9 was $74.72, down 66 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 79 cents higher at $77.50 in the Tuesday PM report. The national base hog weighted average price was down $1.15 at $67.76 this afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 924,000 through Tuesday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week but 52,000 head more than the same time last year.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $73.350, up $0.275,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $69.425, down $1.100

May 18 Hogs closed at $75.125, down $0.925



Cotton futures saw most contracts steady on Tuesday, with the nearby contracts slightly lower and back months slightly higher. The National Cotton Council estimates that the US 17/18 export number will reach 15 million bales. That is 500,000 bales more than the USDA has projected. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP was updated to 69.45 cents/lb Thursday morning. The Cotlook A index on February 12 was 87.55 cents/lb, up 15 points from the previous day. Cash sales reported on the Seam were shown at 9,558 bales, with the average price down 200 points from the previous day at 69.01 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 76.380, down 7 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 77.400, down 5 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 78.420, down 2 points






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