Barchart Morning Call
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 +0.19%) this morning are up +0.21% and European stocks are up +0.31% at a 1-1/2 week high on optimism in the global economic outlook after the OECD raised its global 2018 GDP estimate to a 7-year high of 3.9% from a Nov estimate of 3.7%. Trading activity was muted ahead of the release of U.S. Feb CPI later this morning, which may affect the outlook for Fed policy tightening. European stocks also received a boost on reduced interest rate concerns after the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 0.618%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.66%, Hong Kong +0.02%, China -0.49%, Taiwan +0.85%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea +0.71%, India -0.18%. Japanese stocks closed higher, led by gains in exporters, after USD/JPY (^USDJPY) climbed to a 1-week high, which boosted the earnings prospects of exporters with the weaker yen.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.78% at a 1-week high.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 unch) are down -1.5 ticks.

The OECD raised its global 2018 GDP forecast to 3.9% from a Nov estimate of 3.7%, the strongest in 7 years, but said "trade protectionism remains a key risk that would negatively affect confidence, investment and jobs."

Japan Feb PPI was unch m/m and +2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, with the unch m/m reading the slowest monthly pace of increase in 9 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb CPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +2.1% y/y) and Feb CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y), (2) Treasury auctions $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Dick's Sporting Goods (consensus $1.24), HD Supply Holdings (0.44).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Cowen & Co. Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Enterprise Connect on Mon-Thu, Evercore ISI–Energy Power Summit on Tue, Gabelli & Company Specialty Chemicals Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Emerging Payments Forum on Tue-Wed, SpeedNews Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, JP Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Day on Wed, Susquehanna Technology Conference on Wed.

 

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Century Aluminum (CENX +3.28%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Cowen who said tariffs will alllow the company to bring "significant U.S. production capacity" back online.

Nike (NKE +0.78%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $78.

T-Mobile (TMUS -1.07%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a price target of $80.

Coupa Software (COUP +1.63%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $53.8 million, higher than consensus of $48.6 million, and said it sees Q1 revenue of $51.0 million to $51.5 million, better than consensus of $49.5 million.

Stitch Fix (SFIX +6.87%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $5 million to $10 million, weaker than consensus of $12.4 million.

Myriad Genetics (MYGN +1.38%) slid over 6% in after-hours trading after it said it received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Office of Inspector General as part of an investigation into possible improper claims under Medicare and Medicaid.

Kronos Worldwide (KRO +0.17%) dropped 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 41 cents, well below consensus of 54 cents.

Evoqua Water Technologies (AQUA +3.03%) slipped almost 3% in after-hours trading after holder AEA Inventors was said to offer 17.5 million shares of AQUA stock.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH +2.30%) gained 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 10 cents, much higher than consensus of 2 cents.

Tilly's (TLYS +5.44%) tumbled nearly 14% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 net sales of $164.3 million, below consensus of $166.3 million.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA -3.98%) jumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported an unexpected Q4 EPS profit of 25 cents, better than consensus of a loss of -39 cents a share.

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI +1.00%) slumped 18% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $188.3 million, weaker than consensus of $191.0 million.

National CineMedia (CMI -1.42%) lost almost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $140.7 million, weaker than consensus of $144.5 million.

Proteostasis Therapeutics (PTI +0.49%) surged 30% in after-hours trading after the FDA granted breakthrough therapy designation for its PTI-428, its cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator amplifier.

MARKET COMMENTS

Jun S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESM18 +0.19%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.21%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.13%, Dow Jones -0.62%, Nasdaq +0.42%. The S&P 500 on Monday fell back from a 1-1/4 month high and closed lower on continued concern about President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs and retalation from U.S. trade partners. In addition, energy stocks were undercut by the -1.10% decline in Apr WTI crude oil prices. Stocks found support on strength in technology stocks as the Nasdaq Composite rose to a fresh record high, and on reduced interest rate concerns after the 10-year T-note yield fell further below 2.90%.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 unch) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYM8 +5.50, FVM8 +2.50. Jun 10-year T-notes on Monday closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said "inflation is not yet where we want it" and interest rates "will remain low long after the end of our asset purchases." T-note prices were also supported by reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.151 (+0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.83 (+0.78%) at a 1-week high. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.198 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0027 (+0.22%), USD/JPY -0.40 (-0.37%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on the decline in the 10-year T-note yield, which is negative for the dollar's interest rate differentials, and on concern the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies could start a global trade war that reduces economic growth.

Apr crude oil (CLJ18 unch) this morning is up +24 cents (+0.39%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ18 -0.40%) is +0.0006 (+0.03%). Monday's closes: Apr WTI crude -0.68 (-1.10%), Apr gasoline -0.0103 (-0.64%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower on Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh's comment that Iran wants OPEC to keep oil prices at $60 a barrel as an increase to $70 will encourage U.S. shale oil output. Crude oil prices were also undercut by the fall in the crack spread to a 2-1/2 week low, which reduces incentive for refineries to increase crude purchases in order to refine the crude into gasoline.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Apr gold (GCJ18 -0.14%) -1.8 (-0.14%), May silver (SIK18 -0.07%) -0.001 (-0.01%), and May copper (HGK18 +0.06%) +0.005 (+0.14%). Monday's closes: Apr gold -3.2 (-0.24%), May silver -0.072 (-0.43%), May copper -0.0120 (-0.38%). Metals on Monday closed lower on reduced inflation concerns that curbed demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low. Copper prices were undercut by increased copper supplies after LME copper inventors jumped +10,000 MT to a 1-week high of 321,125.