Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents lower on Thursday, with USDA loosening the belt on world stocks. NASS updated their national corn yield projection to 178.9 bpa this morning, below than trade estimates and 1.8 bpa lower than October. That brought the US 18/19 production number to 14.626 bbu, down 152 mbu from last month as harvested acreage was UNCH. US ending stocks were trimmed by 77 mbu to 1.736 bbu. On the world side of things, USDA re-calculated the changes to Chinese corn production and stocks all the way back to 07/08. The Chinese government had revised their historical data earlier in the week after “technical issues” back in October. The revisions showed 18/19 world carryout at 307.51 MMT, up 148.16 MMT from last month. On a side note Chinese ending stocks were revised 148.99 MMT higher at 207.49 MMT. The weekly US Export Sales report showed 18/19 corn sales for the week of 11/1 within the range of estimates at 701,477 MT. That picked up 77.84% over last week but was still 70.33% lower than last year MY high.

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.67 1/4, down 5 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.79 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn is at $3.87, down 4 1/2 cents

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.92 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are currently down 11 to 12 3/4 cents and pressured by a larger US carryout projection. Front month soy meal is down $2.90/ton, with soy oil 31 points lower. This morning’s Crop Production report from NASS showed US soybean yield at 52.1 bpa, down 1 bpa from October and under the average trade guess. The US production total was trimmed by 90 mbu to 4.6 bbu. The balance sheet tallied a US ending stocks total of 955 mbu, 70 higher vs. October pressured by weaker export demand. USDA had to cut projected US exports by 160 million bushels because it just isn’t happening. World ending stocks saw a 2.04 MMT increase to 112.08 MMT due to old crop revisions. USDA also reported that 388,422 MT of 18/19 soybeans were sold for export in the week of 11/1 in their weekly Export Sales report. That was slightly lower than last week and shy of expectations, with last year’s sales for the same week 66.5% larger. Soy meal sales were shown at 255,987 MT, with soy oil at 22,436 MT.

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.55, down 12 3/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.67 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $8.80 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.94, down 11 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal is at $305.10, down $2.90

Dec 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.89, down $0.31

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are currently 3 to 6 1/2 cents in the red at midday. This morning’s monthly updates from the USDA showed US wheat 18/19 carryout at 949 mbu, down 7 mbu from October. That was mainly caused by higher seed usage, as USDA left their export projection at 1.025 bbu. World ending stocks for wheat were up 6.53 MMT to 266.71 MMT on historical revisions made mainly to China. Australian production was cut by 1 MMT to 17.5 MMT. US wheat export sales during the week of November 1 exceeded analysts’ expectations at 661,241 MT, up 13.5% from last week. The lead buyer was the Philippines @ 306,100 MT, with another 50,000 MT sold to Egypt.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.06 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.95 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.77, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are showing 45 to 60 cent gains on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are up 40 to 85 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 44 cents on November 6 at $152.88. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were down 62 cents @ $217.60, with Select 75 cents lower at $201.02. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Wednesday, with the WTD total at 357,000 head. That is 5,000 above the previous week and the same day last year. Cash cattle trade has still to develop, with packer bids starting at $113 in the south and $180 in the north. Asking prices from producers appear to be $118 in the south and $182+ in the north. Export sales of beef in the week of 11/1 were tallied at 11,504 MT this morning, with shipments in that week at 16,003 metric tonnes (MT). The USDA S&D table showed 2018 beef production down 30 million pounds at 26.914 billion. Beef production for 2019 was 100 million lower at 27.810 billion pounds on lower first quarter production.

Dec 18 Cattle are at $116.675, up $0.575,

Feb 19 Cattle are at $120.050, up $0.450,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $121.900, up $0.575,

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.325, up $0.400

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.650, up $0.825

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.925, up $0.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are mostly 60 cents to $1.15 lower at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 28 cents from the previous day @ $63.72 on November 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.21 @ $71.54 in the Thursday morning report. The national base hog carcass value was $1.06 lower this morning, with a weighted average of 54.43. FI hog slaughter was estimated @ 479,000 head by the USDA on Wednesday (likely a record) and bringing the weekly total to 1.432 million head. That is up 24,000 from the previous week and 48,000 higher than the same week in 2017. Pork sales for export totaled 21,115 MT in the week of Nov 1, with exports at 25,285 MT. Pork production for 2018 was estimated down 105 million pounds at 26.32 billion on lower fourth quarter production by the USDA this morning. Production for 2019 was down 95 million pounds to 27.715 billion.

Dec 18 Hogs are at $54.850, down $0.675,

Feb 19 Hogs are at $60.100, down $1.125

Apr 19 Hogs are at $66.725, down $0.700

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 57 to 81 points to the plus side on Thursday. NASS trimmed the national cotton production total to 18.408 million bales today, down 1.355 million due mostly to cuts in GA and AL following Hurricane Michael. The national yield projection was cut by 49 lbs to 852 lb/ac. That tightened the US carryout number to 4.3 million bales (down 0.7). World ending stocks were down 1.84 million bales to 72.61 million, with the help of a smaller Indian crop @ 28 million bales as well as tighter US stocks. The weekly Export Sales report indicated that a modest 91,007 RB of upland cotton was sold for 18/19 exports in the week of 11/1. Vietnam was the lead buyer of 87,400 RB, with 57,958 RB shown as net reductions for China. Sales for 19/20 totaled 15,488 RB. The Cotlook A index was down 150 points from the previous day at 86.85 cents/lb on November 7. The USDA weekly AWP was updated 69.86 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 130 points from last week.

Dec 18 Cotton is at 79.77, up 81 points,

Mar 19 Cotton is at 81.35, up 78 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82.64, up 69 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 83.620, up 57 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
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