Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 cent per bushel higher after closing 1 to 2 cents lower on Wednesday. The EIA ethanol report showed average production up 9,000 bpd from the previous week. Ethanol stocks ballooned 404,000 barrels at 23.150 million barrels. Prior to the monthly USDA reports, analysts are expecting US corn ending stocks to drop 38 mbu to 1.775 bbu. The Export Sales report today is seen showing 600,000-900,000 MT in 18/19 corn sales for the week of 11/1. China’s CNGOIC revised last years corn crop to 259 MMT, up 20% from previously thought! They also put the 18/19 crop at 259 MMT, well above the Ag ministry’s 213 MMT. Going into today’s USDA report, analysts expected world stocks to be slightly lower at 158.82.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are currently 1 to 2 cents higher since closing with 3 to 4 3/4 cent losses on Wednesday. Some longs were taking profits ahead of the crop report, with preliminary open interest down 5,027 contracts on Wednesday. Front month soy meal was down $3.40/ton, with soy oil 30 points higher. Trade ideas for the USDA Export Sales report are running 400,000-700,000 MT for the week of 11/1. Soy meal sales are seen at 200,000-450,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. The average trade estimate US soybean ending stocks is up 21 mbu to 906 mbu. Production is expected to be lower, but the surveyed traders estimate USDA will also trim exports due to poor performance in the first two months of the marketing year. World carryout is seen at 110.91 MMT, which would be up 0.87 MMT from October. The USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports are scheduled for 11 AM CST.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher this morning in the CHI and KC contracts. However, Minneapolis spring wheat futures are 5 to 6 cents higher. Wheat posted 4 to 8 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday, with nearby CBT down 1 3/4 cents. All wheat export sales during the week of November 1 are thought to have been 300,000-600,000 MT ahead of USDA’s weekly report this morning. Last week’s sales total was on the higher side of those estimates at 582,545 MT. USDA is expected to trim the world wheat ending stocks estimate by 0.73 MMT to 259.46 MMT. A smaller Australian crop is projected, was well as tighter stocks in other major producers. Russia’s Ag Ministry updated their country’s wheat export projection to 34-35 MMT on Wednesday, up 1 MMT from their prior estimate.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 10 to 80 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday, with nearby December up 67.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were steady to $1.30 lower on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 44 cents on November 6 at $152.88. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 54 cents @ $218.22, with Select $2.89 lower at $201.77. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Wednesday, with the WTD total at 357,000 head. That is 5,000 above the previous week and the same day last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 310 head offered. Cash cattle trade has still to develop, with packer bids starting at $113 in the south and $180 in the north. Asking prices from producers appear to be $118 in the south and $182+ in the carcass based area.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures ended Wednesday with most contracts 65 cents to $1.50 higher and a few front months marginally mixed. This was a dead cat bounce after the limit down drop in December futures on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 8 cents from the previous day @ $64.00 on November 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.33 @ $72.75 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was 44 cents lower yesternay afternoon, with a weighted average of 55.28. FI hog slaughter was estimated @ 479,000 head by the USDA on Wednesday (likely a record) and bringing the weekly total to 1.432 million head. That is up 24,000 from the previous week and 48,000 higher than the same week in 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 9 to 13 points lower this morning ahead of the weekly export sales and Crop Production reports. They were 77 to 153 points higher in most contracts on Wednesday. The US dollar index was lower on the day. Traders are anticipating a reduction to US cotton production in today’s USDA monthly report because of hurricane damage. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day at 88.35 cents/lb on November 6. The USDA weekly AWP is 68.56 cents/lb through Thursday and will be updated this afternoon.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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