Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher on Monday, as weekend rains in Argentina were limited. Monday morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 835,131 MT of corn was shipped during the week of 2/8. That is 23.61% lower than the previous week and lags the same week last year by 33.51%. Spec traders in corn futures and options reduced their net short position by 48,018 contracts during the week of Feb 6. That CFTC position was at -82,924 contracts on Tuesday. In a tender that closed on Monday, South Korea purchased 120,000 MT of corn most likely sourced from the US for April-May delivery.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.65 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.73 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.81, up 3 1/2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.88, up 3 3/4 cents

Soybean futures are trading 11 to 12 1/2 cents in the green, after showing gains of 20+ cents earlier in the day. Moisture in Argentina over the weekend was less than expected and there may also be some stock market cash trying to find a home. The trucker strike in Argentina was lifted over the weekend, allowing shipments to resume. Meal futures are up $10.30/ton, with nearby soy oil steady. The USDA reported a private sale of 314,000 MT of soybeans to Unknown Destinations with 198,000 MT for 17/18 and 116,000 MT for 18/19. That sale was offset by a cancellation of 455,000 MT of 17/18 soybeans to China. There was 1.319 MMT in soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended 2/8. That is 1.16% larger than a year ago and 14.55% larger than last year. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that money managers were net short 9,978 contracts as of Feb 6. That is an +11,871 contract move from the previous week.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.94 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.05 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.15 1/2, up 12 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.17 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $354.10, up $10.30

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $31.96, unch,

Wheat futures are currently 8 to 10 cents higher in the front CBT and KC contracts, as MPLS is up 4 to 5 cents. This morning’s Export Inspections report showed 487,902 MT of wheat shipped for the week that ended 2/8. That was 13.57% above the last week and nearly 50.22% larger than the same time last year. Spec funds were shown reducing their CFTC net short position 13,369 contracts during the week of 2/6, to a net position of 83,394 contracts in CBT wheat futures and options. In KC wheat futures and options, they flipped their net position 17,054 contracts to a net long position of 15,157 contracts. That is the first time they have held a net long position since early October. Australia made the lowest offer in Iraq’s recent tender, with the offers to remain valid until Thursday.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.58 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.74 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.07 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are showing gains of 50 cents to $1.55 at midday. Feeder cattle futures are mostly $1.675 to $1.925 higher in most front months on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 43 cents on February 8 at $147.59. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.50 at $208.02, with Select boxes $1.77 higher at $204.51. The Ch/Se spread had narrowed down to $3.51. Estimated FI week to date cattle slaughter is 591,000 head through Saturday. That was down 20,000 from the previous week on lighter Saturday slaughter, but 12,000 head larger than the same week last year. Most cash trade was in the $126 range last week.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $127.025, up $0.500,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $125.175, up $1.550,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $116.850, up $1.425,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $147.875, up $1.675

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.525, up $1.775

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.250, up $1.925

Lean hog futures are steady to $1.30 higher on Monday, as nearby Feb is UNCH ahead of Wednesday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 8 was at $75.38, down 25 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.27 higher at $75.71 in the Monday AM report. The loin was the only reported lower, with the belly primal up $6.01. The national base hog weighted average price was down 92 cents at $68.56 this morning. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 2,389,000 through Saturday. That is down 49,000 head from the previous week but 29,000 head more than the same time last year.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $73.175, unch,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $70.150, up $1.300

May 18 Hogs are at $75.600, up $0.825

Cotton futures are 6 to 29 points higher at midday. The CFTC commitment of Traders report showed managed money lowering their net long position by 14,489 contracts during the week that ended 2/6. The position in cotton futures and options was at 81,887 contracts on that date. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP was updated to 69.45 cents/lb Thursday morning, which was down 195 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index on February 9 was 87.40 cents/lb, up 70 points from the previous day. The NCC grower survey released on Saturday anticipates a 3.7% increase in US all cotton acreage in 2018.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 76.97, up 29 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 77.7, up 7 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 78.64, up 6 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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