Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading as much as 1 cent per bushel lower this morning. They saw some light selling interest on Tuesday, with fractional losses in most contracts. Preliminary open interest rose 555 contracts. NASS reported that most of the states along the WCB are still lagging normal harvest progress, with the ECB ahead of average but suffering some wetter weather now. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports, analysts are expecting NASS to show the national average corn yield at 180 bpa, down 0.7 from October. They also estimate a slight reduction to harvested acreage, bringing the average guess for total production to 14.721 bbu, down 57 mbu from last month.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are currently 1 to 1 1/2 cents higher after ending the Tuesday session with 1 to 2 cent losses in most contracts. Front month soy meal was up 80 cents/ton, with soy oil steady. In Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report North Carolina was shown as the only one of the 18 reported states ahead of their normal harvest pace. The average trade guess prior to Thursday’s USDA report is for national soybean yield to be trimmed by 0.2 to 52.9 bpa, That, mixed with an estimated slight drop in acreage, brings the average production estimate to 4.676 bbu, down 14 mbu from October. Abiove expects Brazil’s 2018 soybean exports will total 79 MMT, up 2 MMT from their previous estimate.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are UNCH to 1 1/2 cents higher this morning. They settled Tuesday with 3 to 5 cent gains in most winter wheat contracts and MPLS up 7 cents in nearby Dec. Short covering was the main activity in Chicago, with preliminary open interest dropping 3,461 contracts. Slow planting pace is causing some to think next year’s acreage number will be lower than originally thought. Winter wheat planting in KS was reported at 83% complete (95% avg), with OK 82% planted (93% avg). Emergence in KS was 12% below average at 69%. Traders are expecting Thursday’s USDA report to show US 18/19 carryout at 969 mbu, up 13 mbu from October. Japan is seeking 121,488 MT of wheat from the US and Canada in their weekly MOA tender. Of that total, 60,728 MT is US origin.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended Tuesday mixed, with front month Dec up a dime. Feeder cattle futures were also mixed, with nearby contracts up 17.5 to 47.5 cents and back months lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 23 cents on November 5 at $153.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 17 cents @ $218.76, with Select $2.31 higher at $204.66. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Tuesday, with the WTD total at 238,000 head. That is 4,000 above the previous week and the same date last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction shows just 310 head of cattle for sale. A few bids of $180 appeared on Tuesday, with little action report so far this week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted sharp losses in most contracts on Tuesday, with Dec down the limit. Today will have expanded limits of $4.50. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 4 cents from the previous day @ $64.08 on November 2. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 78 cents @ $74.08 in the Tuesday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was 55 cents lower at a weighted average of $55.80 yesterday afternoon. FI hog slaughter was estimated 477,000 head by the USDA on Tuesday, bringing the weekly total to 953,000 head. That is up 22,000 from the previous week and 34,000 higher than the same week in 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are 77 to 105 points higher after they closed the Tuesday session with 99 to 144 point losses in the front months. The US dollar is sharply lower following the US election results, while the stock markets are higher. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report had harvest progress in TX moving 2% to 38% vs. the 40% average, with GA 53% harvested (54% avg). Texas condition ratings were down 10 to 253, with GA losing another 6 points to 244. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points from the previous day at 88.35 cents/lb on November 5. The USDA weekly AWP is 68.56 cents/lb through Thursday.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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