Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 1 to 2 cents in the red. This morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production in the week of 11/2 at 1.068 million barrels per day, up 9,000 bpd from the previous week. Stocks of ethanol were up 404,000 barrels at 23.150 million barrels, with the Midwest and West Coast seeing a jump. Prior to Thursday’s monthly USDA reports, analysts are expecting US corn ending stocks to drop 38 mbu to 1.775 bbu. The Export Sales report tomorrow is seen as showing 600,000-900,000 MT in 18/19 corn sales for the week of 11/1. China’s CNGOIC revised last years corn crop to 259 MMT, up 20% from previously thought! They also put the 18/19 crop at 259 MMT, well above the Ag ministry’s 213 MMT. This may cause changes to USDA world S & D table in upcoming reports and would take away the tightest since 2000 world stocks/use argument if adopted. Going into Thursday’s USDA report, analysts expected world stocks to be slightly lower at 158.82.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.72 1/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.83 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.97 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed with 3 to 4 3/4 cent losses on Wednesday. Front month soy meal was down $3.40/ton, with soy oil 30 points higher. Thursday’s Export sales report is expected to show 400,000-700,000 MT in 18/19 soybean export sales for the week of 11/1. Soy meal sales are seen at 200,000-450,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. The average trade estimate heading into Thursday’s monthly USDA reports calls for US soybean ending stocks to be up 21 mbu to 906 mbu. Production is expected to be lower, but the surveyed traders estimate USDA will also trim exports due to poor performance in the first two months of the marketing year. World carryout is seen at 110.91 MMT, which would be up 0.87 MMT from October.

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.67 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.79 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.92 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $308.00, down $3.40,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.20, up $0.30

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures posted 4 to 8 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday, with nearby CBT down 1 3/4 cents. All wheat export sales during the week of November 1 are thought to have been

300,000-600,000 MT ahead of Thursday’s weekly report. Last week’s sales total was on the higher side of those estimates at 582,545 MT. USDA is expected to trim the world wheat ending stocks estimate by 0.73 MMT to 259.46 MMT on Thursday. A smaller Australian crop is projected, was well as tighter stocks in other major producers. Russia’s Ag Ministry updated their country’s wheat export projection to 34-35 MMT on Wednesday, up 1 MMT from their prior estimate.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.02 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures saw 10 to 80 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday, with nearby Dec up 67.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were steady to $1.30 lower on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 44 cents on November 6 at $152.88. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 54 cents @ $218.22, with Select $2.89 lower at $201.77. USDA again estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Wednesday, with the WTD total at 357,000 head. That is 5,000 above the previous week and the same date last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 310 head offered. Most regions are still fairly quiet so far this week, with asks around $118 and $180 bids.

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $116.100, up $0.675,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $119.600, down $0.800,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $121.325, down $0.600,

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.925, down $0.050

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.825, down $0.775

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.175, down $1.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures settled Wednesday with most contracts 65 cents to $1.50 higher and a few front months marginally mixed. This was a dead cat bounce after the limit down drop in December futures on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 8 cents from the previous day @ $64.00 on November 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.33 @ $72.75 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was 44 cents lower this afternoon, with a weighted average of 55.28. FI hog slaughter was estimated @ 479,000 head by the USDA on Wednesday (likely a record) and bringing the weekly total to 1.432 million head. That is up 24,000 from the previous week and 48,000 higher than the same week in 2017.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $55.525, up $1.425,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $61.225, down $0.175

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $67.425, up $0.125

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were 77 to 153 points higher in most contracts on Wednesday. The US dollar index was lower on the day, following Tuesday’s election. The Fed meets this week, but most don’t expect another rate hike until next month. Traders are anticipating a reduction to US cotton production in Thursday’s USDA report because of the hurricane damage. USDA will also show the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day at 88.35 cents/lb on November 6. The USDA weekly AWP is 68.56 cents/lb through Thursday and will be updated that afternoon.

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 78.960, up 153 points,

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 80.570, up 130 points

May 19 Cotton closed at 81.950, up 131 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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